Thursday, May 29, 2014

METHODS OF MEASURING NATIONAL INCOME




There are three angles through which people perform economic activities, earn their living, produce goods and services and distribute the national products.

(1)     The national economy is viewed as an aggregate of producing units combining different sectors.
(2)     The entire national economy is considered as a combination of individuals and households having several factors of production.
(3)     The national economy may also be viewed as an aggregate of consumers, money savers and total investments.  

Following these approaches, national income measurement may be carried out through these methods:
                                                                                                        
1.      Net Product method: considers the entire national economy as an aggregate of producing units;
2.      Factor-income method: views national income as combination of factor-owners and users.
3.      Expenditure method: treats national income as a collection of spending units.

  1. Value Added Method or Net Output Approach 
The value added method consists of three stages: 

  • Determining the total value of domestic output in the various branches of production;
  • Estimating the cost of inputs used as well the depreciation of physical assets; and
  • Deducting the depreciation from gross value to obtain the net value of domestic output

The net value of domestic output so obtained is often called the value added or income produced equal to the total of wages, salaries, supplementary about incomes, interest, profits, and net rent paid or accrued.
           
For measuring the gross value of domestic product, output is divided under different categories on the basis of the nature of activities from which they originate.  The classification of output differs from country to country depending on the nature of domestic activities, their significance in aggregate economic activities, and availability of required data.

After the classification of the output under the various categories, the value of gross output is computed in two alternative ways:

  • Multiplying the output of each category of sector by their respective market price and adding them together,
  • Collecting data about the gross sales and changes in inventories from the account of the manufacturing enterprises and computing the value of GDP on the basis thereof

If there are gaps in data, some estimates are made thereof and gaps are filled.

The estimation of the cost of production including depreciation is the next step taken in estimation of the net national product. The non-availability of adequate and requisite data has made the estimation of cost of production a relatively more complicated and difficult task. Still more difficult is the job of estimating the depreciation since it involves both conceptual and statistical problems. However, countries using net-product method find ways and means to calculate the deductible cost.  The cost are estimated either in absolute terms or as an over ratio of input to the total output.  The common practice in estimation of depreciation is to follow the usual business practice of depreciation accounting. Usually, depreciation is calculated at certain percentage of capital, allowed under the tax-laws.

  1. Factor Income Method
Factor income method is also known as factor-share method. This method calculates the national income by adding up all the ‘incomes accruing to the basic factors of production used in producing the national product’.  So the national income equals the sum of the corresponding factor earning. Since there are broadly two factors of production namely labour and capital, national income is supposed to originate from two primary factors. Thus, the total factor-incomes are grouped under three categories

·         Labour income
·         Capital income and
·         Mixed income.

Labour incomes included in the national income are:

·  Wages and salaries paid to the residents of the country including bonus and commissions, and social security payments,
·      Supplementary labour incomes including employer’s contribution to social security and employees’ welfare fund, and direct pension payments to retired employees,
·    Supplementary labour incomes in kind such as free health and education, food and clothing, and accommodation.

Capital incomes include:

·         Dividends
·         Undistributed profits of corporations,
·         Profit taxes,
·         Interest, rent,
·         Royalties,
·         Profits or surplus of government enterprises.

Mixed incomes are a composite of:

·         Labour incomes,
·         Rent on own property,
·         Interest on own capital and profits
·         Incomes in kind as farm products consumed for the farm.

All the three kinds of income are added together to give the measure of national income by factor income method.

  1. Expenditure Method 
The expenditure method measures the national income at the final expenditure stages. It has two variants:
·         The income disposal and
·         The product disposal

In the income disposal national income or product is estimated from the expenditure of the three institutional sectors:

·         Household,
·         Business and
·         Government 
        
These sectors dispose of their incomes either on consumption or on savings. Ex-posts, savings is synonymous with investment or accumulation of capital stock.

Of the gross expenditures in the economy by three sectors, only the expenditures on currently produced final goods and services and net foreign investment are taken into account for estimating national income. Expenditure on domestically transacted financial assets on goods produced in preceding periods and second hand goods and on intermediate consumption is excluded.

Expenditures of the three sectors on currently produced final goods and services are classified broadly into:

·         Expenditure on consumption (C )
·         Expenditure on Investment (I)

Consumption is divided into:

·         Private consumption expenditure and
·         The consumption by the government sector

Similarly, investment is classified into:

·         Private investment expenditure and
·         Public sector investment expenditure

Private investment includes capital accumulation by the business sector, with the exception of new residential dwellings constructed by the household sector, which is regarded as household investment. In fact, residential construction is the only item of household expenditure included under investment. All other household expenditures are included under consumption, including those on consumer durables whether actually consumed in the year or accumulated.

Gross national expenditure = consumption expenditure+ gross national investment, where gross national investment = gross domestic investment + net foreign investment.
Gross domestic investment = replacement investment or depreciation + net domestic investment.
Hence, net national expenditure = net domestic expenditure = consumption + net domestic investment + net foreign investment.

However, national expenditure measures the expenditure of residents of the country and net national product or income the residents generated. If national expenditure exceeds national income it means that the residents have received gifts from abroad in the form of current and capital transfers from abroad. If national expenditure is less than national income the residents have gifts to abroad.

In the product disposal variant, national income or product is measured not from the point of view of income disposed by residents but from the point of view of sales of production units in the country. These domestic production units may sell either to residents or to foreigners (exports or X).

However, residents’ expenditures on consumption and investment may be on goods and services produced domestically or on foreign goods and services (imports=M). Gross domestic expenditure on goods and services = C + gross domestic investment +M. It follows then that residents’ expenditure on the gross domestic product =C + I – M. And, therefore, gross domestic product = sales to residents (C + I –M) plus sales to foreigners or X). The gross national product = C + I + X – M+ net income from abroad.

Choice of Methods

There are three common methods of estimating the national income:

(i)           Net Product or Value Added Method
(ii)         Factor-income Method
(iii)       Expenditure Method

All the three methods would give the same measure of national income, subject to the availability of required data for each method. Therefore, any of these methods may be used to estimate the national income. But all the three methods are not appropriate for all the economies since the requisite data may not be available. All the three methods may not also be used for all purposes. Therefore, the question of choice of method arises.

The choice of a particular method may be made on the basis of two specific considerations:

1.      The purpose of national income analysis, and
2.      Availability of necessary data.

                                i.      For the purposes of analyzing the net output or value added, the net output method is more appropriate than the two other methods.
                              ii.        For the purposes of analyzing the factor income distribution, income method is more appropriate.
                            iii.        If the objective of the national income estimation is to identify the expenditure pattern of the national income, the expenditure or final product method should be adopted.
                            iv.          However, availability of adequate and appropriate data is a relatively more important consideration in selecting a method of estimating national income.

In spite of the above, the most commonly adopted method is the net product methods for the following reasons:

1.      Net product method requires classification of the economic activities and output thereof that is much easier than to classify income or expenditure, and
2.      The most common practice is to collect and organize the national income data by the division of economic activities.

No single method can provide an adequate and accurate measure of national income since the statistical system of no country provides the total data requirements for a particular method. Commonly, therefore, two or more methods may be used to estimate the national income. The combination of methods against is dependent on the nature of data required and sector break-up of the available data.

Problems faced in the Measurement of National Income

There are a number of difficulties in the measurement of national income of a country. The following are the important problems in the measurement of national income.

1.      National income is always measured in terms of money but there are certain goods and services whose measurement in terms of money is not possible; for example, the services housewife renders for her family, services performed voluntarily with charitable objectives, hobby products, etc.  Such items are not possible to be included in the national income figures. This causes an underestimate of the national income.

2.      Income generated through illegal activities (such as black-marketing) is not included in the national income. Their exclusion results in an under valuation of the national income.

3.      It is difficult to obtain accurate statistics. This creates big differences between national income statistics collected by different institution.
  
4.      The calculation of depreciation on capital consumption presents another formidable difficulty. Since there are no accepted standard rates of depreciation applicable to the different categories of capital goods, the national income estimate will not be correct.

5.      It is not simple to avoid double counting in the national income. To remove this difficulty final goods and services are to be included in the national income, but this is also not an easy job.

6.      The ups and downs in the prices of goods and services also create problem in the estimation of national income. In the same way, if general price index falls, the national income will also go down, although national output may increase. Therefore, due to variations in prices, it may be cumbersome to make an accurate estimate of national income.

7.      The transfer payment may also create a problem in the estimate of national income. Whether interest on borrowings and unemployment allowances be included in the national income causes an acute problem.

8.      The prevalence of non-monetized transactions in developing countries causes an important problem in the measurement of national income. A considerable part of output does not reach the market at all. A major part of agriculture output is consumed at the farm itself. This decreases the national income estimate to a large extent.

National Income and Economic Welfare

National income or per capita income is often considered as a measure of economic welfare. A man’s income is the maximum amount he can consume during a week and still expect to be well-off at the weekend as he was at the beginning. However, Gross National Product means different things to different people.  Some understand it as a measure of economic welfare. However, GNP cannot be used to measure subjective concepts that can be influenced by many factors other than economic goods.

GNP focuses on the production of goods and services makes no decision about how useful the goods and services are or why people want goods and services. A dollar spent on advertising counts as much as a dollar spent on a heart machine to save life. GNP makes no distinction. The only criterion is whether or not someone wants the ‘good’ or service. Of course, it is possible to develop a measure of economic welfare but not of social progress. In measuring social progress the problem is that most of the things we would like to measure do not flow through market mechanism. Also the market prices of goods and services do not shows how much customers value them. 

Due to different conceptual and practical issues associated with the estimation of GNP one may raise doubts about the usefulness of the GNP measure particularly when one is not able to equate increases in wealth with increases in welfare. Factors such as the distribution of income may change our view of the standard of living in a country.  However, in order to make an accurate evaluation of the standard of living of a country we should take into consideration such aspects as the expectation of life, the crime rate, the standard of health care, etc. Also producing more economic goods, such as cars will also give rise to more economic ‘bads’ such as pollution.

National income statistics may mislead and may be deficient since they do not measure adequately welfare of a nation. On the one hand such things as environmental pollution, the effects of crime, and other dis-amenities are not deducted from output, on the other hand, non-market activities as increases in leisure, advances in medical knowledge, and the introduction of superior products are not included in the measurement of output. These viewpoints identify the limitations of national income accounting statistics. These statistics should not be used to measure welfare.

The most elaborate attempt to develop a broader measure of economic well- being encompasses both the economic ‘goods’ and ‘bads’ generated during a specific period. It attempts to measure ‘consumption of things that provide utility to households rather total production; it gives value to such non-marketed activities as leisure and makes subtractions for each ‘disutilities’ as pollution and congestion. Of course, subjective judgments are involved when researchers seek to place a value on items that do not go through markets.

Recent years several have seen attempts to develop alternative measures of national product that considers both the unseen ‘pluses’ such as leisure and the ‘minuses’ such as pollution. Despite all these problems GDP remains the simplest method to assess the level of economic activity in a society.   
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